Age pyramids: types and types of age structures. What the age-sex pyramid can tell about Population pyramid

The age-sex pyramid is a graphic representation of the distribution of people by their sex and age at some point in time. This is a two-sided chart in which the number of people of each age and sex (or their proportion in the population) is shown as a horizontal bar of the same scale. The bars are arranged one above the other in order of increasing age values ​​(usually from 1 to 100 years), on the left - for men, on the right - for women. Age-sex pyramids are built according to censuses and surveys. The area of ​​the steps of the pyramids corresponds to the number of people of a given age and gender or their share in the population (while the length of the steps corresponds to the density of a given age group - the number of people per unit of age).

When analyzing the pyramid, 2 points are taken into account: Tikhomirova N.P. Demography. Methods of analysis and forecasting. Proc. allowance for universities. - M .: Exam, 2205. - 256 p.

• 1. Comparison pyramid shapes in countries with different demographic regimes . For example, in developing countries, the base of the pyramid is broader, as children and youth make up a significant proportion of the total population compared to adults and the elderly. In developed countries, on the contrary, the base of the pyramid is narrowing, as there is a gradual redistribution of the population in favor of older ages (population aging). In the absence of migration, the shape of the age-sex pyramid depends on trends in fertility and mortality.
• 2. Analysis of the details of the age pyramid: small and large generations . The influence of demographic processes (fertility, mortality and migration) on the shape of the age pyramid:
• 1) Birth rate The number of some generations may turn out to be smaller in comparison with neighboring generations already at birth. In order for the decrease in the number of births to be reflected in the shape of the pyramid, it must be short-lived, otherwise the "failure" on the pyramid will not appear.
• - the number of children born can be affected by a decrease in the birth rate. In some years, women give birth to fewer children on average.
• - the number of children born can also be affected by the age structure of potential mothers (in some years there are relatively fewer women in young reproductive ages) or their marital structure (the number of married potential mothers is decreasing).
• 2) Mortality Epidemics, death in the war of men of military age;
• 3) Migration

The composition of the population by sex is usually considered together with the age composition as the age and sex composition of the population. It is expedient to do this because of differences in age-specific mortality of men and women. For every 100 girls born in Russia, an average of 105-106 boys are born; it is a biological constant among those born alive. It can be expressed in another way - for every 1000 newborns, there are an average of 512 boys and 488 girls. There are certain patterns of the sex of the born child, depending on the status of the marital status, age, living conditions of his parents, especially his mother. Married parents have more boys, and illegitimate children have more girls. The greater the age of the mother and the greater the serial number of births, the lower the proportion of boys among those born. That is, for older mothers, the youngest children tend to be girls. During the period of difficult living conditions (war, economic crises, etc.) more girls are born. After leaving these difficult living conditions, there are already more boys among those born. This is due to the conditions of gestation and gender differences in intrauterine mortality. It should also be taken into account that the biological resistance of men (boys) is lower than that of women (girls); the mortality of male embryos and fetuses is also higher, this is especially acutely felt in difficult periods in the life of the country and family. The behavioral factor of the population also affects the sex ratio of babies born. At the end of the 20th century, the practice of prenatal diagnosis of the sex of an unborn child appeared and expanded. The desire of parents to have a child of a certain gender and the use of prenatal diagnostics to a certain extent contribute to an increase in the frequency of artificial terminations of pregnancy (abortions). Due to the mortality of men by adulthood, the ratio of men and women is gradually leveling off, and at older ages the number of men is much less than women. Russian statistical yearbook. 2005: Statistical Sat. / Rosstat, 71p.

In 1894 the Swedish statistician and demographer A.-G. Sundberg proposed to distinguish three types of age structures of the population: progressive, stationary and regressive.

• · The progressive type is characterized by a high proportion of children and a low proportion Medkov V.M. Demography. Textbook for universities: add. m-tion of images. RF.-M.: INFRA-M, 2005, 92s.. of the older generation in the entire population. Its formation is based on an extended type of reproduction. The age pyramid has the shape of a triangle, the base of which depends on the birth rate.
• · In the stationary type, which is based on a simple type of reproduction, the age pyramid has the shape of a bell with an almost balanced proportion of children's and senile age groups.
• · The narrowed type of reproduction leads to the formation of a regressive type, the age pyramid of which has the shape of an urn. It is characterized by a relatively high proportion of elderly and old people and a low proportion of children.

population sexual man woman

In accordance with three types of age structure, population reproduction modes can be distinguished: Andreev E., Vishnevsky A. et al. Weekly "Demoscope Weekly" // Russian Age and Gender Pyramid. No. 215 - 216 of September 26 - October 9, 2005, 479s..

• Expanded reproduction - in each next generation there are more people than in the previous one: the population is growing rapidly (typical for most modern developing countries of the world);
• simple reproduction - in subsequent generations there are about the same number of people as in previous ones; population, as a rule, almost does not change (typical for some developing and developed countries);
• narrowed reproduction - there are fewer people in subsequent generations than in previous ones; the population is declining (typical for most developed European countries, including Russia).

For a visual and joint representation of the age and sex structures of the population, the so-called. age-sex pyramids. The age-sex pyramid is a two-sided bar chart of the distribution of the population by age, with the female population on one side of the graph (on the right) and the male population on the other side (on the left). The vertical axis of the histogram represents the age scale expressed in one- or five-year intervals, starting from 0 years and ending with the age limit or open age interval. And the total population of a given sex and age, or its share in the entire population or in the population of a given sex, is depicted as horizontal bars, the area of ​​\u200b\u200bwhich (or length in the case of equal intervals) is proportional to the named indicators. For the purposes of comparing different populations and obtaining comparable information about their age structure, pyramids are built using the proportions of the population of a given age and sex group in the entire population and taking the total population as 100, 1000 or 10,000.

The diagram obtained in this way was at one time called a pyramid for the simple reason that, due to the influence of mortality, the number of persons in older ages is usually less than in younger ones. At least, this was the case in those years when this tool for visual representation of the age and sex structure of the population was proposed. At present, in countries with low fertility, the shape of the population distribution diagram by sex and age does not at all resemble a pyramid, but rather, some kind of inverted urn.

The age-sex pyramid depicts the state of the population at some point in time (at the time of the census or on January 1), i.e. in fact, it is, as it were, a stop in the continuous process of population reproduction. Therefore, by the comparative length of the bands, one can judge the influence of birth and death processes on the age structure of the population (and over many decades), as well as future trends in population reproduction and possible prospects for changes in its size in the future. If, for example, in a certain year and period of time, the number of births noticeably differs in one direction or another from neighboring ones, then this will be reflected in the age-sex pyramid in the form of either a ledge (if the number of births is greater than in neighboring years), or a failure (if this number is correspondingly less). And this deformation, passing through more and more older ages, will persist for almost a whole century, until this set of births dies out. And it will influence both demographic phenomena and phenomena of a completely different kind, changing in waves, for example, the number of births, mortality, demand for certain goods and services, etc. etc. The age-sex pyramid also makes it possible to judge the impact on the reproduction of the population of various historical events: wars, epidemics, revolutions, certain legislative acts and other actions that can somehow affect the processes of fertility and mortality.

The sex and age pyramid is similar to real pyramids, since with increasing age the number of people in age groups decreases and the stripes become shorter. The age structure of an ideal population, in which the birth rate and death rate would remain unchanged for a long time, would look like an almost isosceles triangle with straight sides (but still with some skew to the right, i.e. towards the “female half”). However, this does not happen, because both the number of births and the number of deaths fluctuate over time, sometimes very sharply.

Borisov V.A., Delyugraphy: Textbook for universities. M., 1999. S. 88.

With the help of age-sex pyramids, other demographic and socio-economic phenomena can also be explored. So, demographers build pyramids by gender, age and marital status. Widely known are the economic-demographic age-sex pyramids used to analyze economic activity by age and measure the balance of production and consumption by generations 28 .

An important aspect of the use of age-sex pyramids is the analysis of the relationship between the age structure and population reproduction. The connection between the age structure and the reproduction of the population was noticed relatively long ago. Even at the end of the XIX century. Swedish demographer A.G. Sundberg introduced the concept progressive, stationary and regressive types of age structure. They were named so because with a progressive age structure, the population increases and, moreover, quite quickly, with a stationary one, it does not change its numbers, and with a regressive one, it decreases.

They differ from each other in the shares of children aged 0-15 years and "old people" aged 50 years and older. In the progressive age structure, the proportion of children is, according to Sundberg, 40%, and "old people" - 10%; in the stationary, respectively, 27 and 23%, and in the regressive, 20 and 30%).

These types of age structure correspond to the types of age pyramids proposed in the 1930s. 20th century German statistician F. Burgdörfer. The progressive age structure (young population) corresponds to a regular pyramid; a diagram depicting a stationary age structure resembles a bell; the regressive age structure corresponds to a figure called (perhaps not without some irony) an urn. These figures are shown in Fig. 3.1.

The above can be illustrated by the example of the age-sex pyramids of the Russian population. Below (graphs 3.8 - 3.10) shows the pyramids for 1939 (population census 1939), for 1998 (estimated data) and for 2050 (UN forecast 1998, lower version). The first of these pyramids is that of a typical young growing population with a high birth rate and a relatively high but declining death rate. The length of the stripes decreases relatively evenly, however, deformations caused by acute events in Russian history at the beginning of the 20th century are already noticeable on this pyramid. First of all, attention is drawn to the “pit”, located in the region of ages from 15 to 25 years. This "pit" is the result of a decline in the birth rate during the First World War, the 1917 revolution and the civil war that followed. These events left their mark on the population, which in 1939 crossed the age limit of 35 years (especially in the age group of 35-39 years).

Rice. 3.1. Types of age structure according to F. Burgderfer 29

Chart 3.8

Age pyramid of the population of Russia, 1939

A rather sharp narrowing of the pyramid in these segments is a consequence of population losses from military operations, epidemics and other adverse events of that time. The diagram also reflected the compensatory increase in the birth rate in the 1920s. (protrusion at the age level of 10-15 years), some of its growth in connection with the ban on abortion in 1936, as well as its sharp drop in the early 30s, caused, no doubt, by those socio-economic and political events that were happening in the country at that time.

On the pyramid of 1959, deep dips in the numbers of those born in 1916-1918 are visible. (World War I and Civil War), their slight increase in 1919 (it is still difficult to find an explanation), then growth until 1929 and a sharp drop in 1930-1935. ... Then the deepest failure in 1940-1944, i.e. during the hardest war. It is important to pay attention to the still relatively wide and expanding base of the pyramid, which indicates a relatively high birth rate in the country. ...It is easy to notice the numerical superiority of women, especially at the age of over 30 years. In contrast to the birth rate, the fall of which manifests itself in the age structure in the form of depressions, the death rate leaves a mark on the pyramid only in the form of a disproportion of the sexes and the general form of its configuration.

Borisov V.A. Demography: Textbook for universities. M., 1999. S. 92-93.

In general, the age-sex pyramid of 1939 is a portrait of a young, growing population with a high birth rate and a relatively high, but declining, death rate.

A completely different picture emerges when looking at the 1998 age-sex pyramid. and during the Great Patriotic War they moved to the upper segments of the pyramid and smoothed out to some extent. But on the other hand, the pyramid clearly reflects the evolution of the birth rate in Russia in the post-war period. This is the time of the modern demographic history of Russia, when the country lived in relatively "calm" conditions, without wars, mass repressions, epidemics and other catastrophic phenomena. Demographic changes during these years were of an evolutionary nature and were determined solely by the restructuring of demographic behavior.

Age-sex pyramid of the population of Russia, 1998

Chart 3.9

It was during this period that the action of global factors unfolded "without interference", which in their totality led to the inevitable offensive already in the 90s. the demographic collapse experienced by our country. Four stages of the demographic evolution of Russia in the postwar years are clearly visible. The first of them is the time before the beginning of the 60s, when the birth rate was practically stable, and fluctuations in the number of births were determined mainly by the influence of changes in the age structure of women of reproductive age. The need for children and the reproductive attitudes of the majority of the population were still relatively high in these years. Then, a “pit” is clearly visible on the pyramid, falling on the period of a sharp drop in the number of births and the birth rate in the 60s. The reason for this decline was a radical decrease in the need for children for most families, which occurred against the backdrop of a relative improvement in the standard of living of the population. The third stage is the 70s - the first half of the 80s. The number of births during this period grew, mainly under the influence of shifts in the age structure of the population and, in part, a more complete satisfaction of the need for two children (in the first half of the 1980s), which was reflected in the lengthening of the diagram bars corresponding to these years.

And, finally, the lower part of the pyramid shows a sharp, landslide drop in the number of births and fertility, which began in 1987 and took in the 90s. catastrophic forms. The base of the pyramid is continuously narrowing. Its shape is becoming more and more similar to the type of pyramid corresponding to the regressive type of population reproduction. The age-sex pyramid of 1998 clearly testifies to the entry of our country into a period of deep and long-term depopulation, the way out of which is becoming more and more problematic. Further evolution of the reproduction of the population of our country in this direction will lead to the fact that its age-sex structure will acquire by the middle of the 21st century. the view shown in Graph 3.10 based on the 1998 UN forecast (lower version). We see in front of us an old and dying population, the shape of the age-sex pyramid of which really resembles a funeral urn.

Chart 3.10

Age and sex structure of the Russian population, 2050 t. UN forecast. Bottom option 30

At the same time, the authors of the forecast are actually very optimistic in their predictions. They come from overestimated future fertility trends in Russia. According to the lower version of the forecast, starting from 2000-2005, the birth rate will be fixed at the level of 1.25 children per 1 woman of reproductive age and will remain so until the end of the forecast period, i.e. until 2050. What is this forecast based on? completely incomprehensible and not commented on in any way.

The reality will be much more tragic if, of course, nothing is done to stop the decline in the birth rate and depopulation in our country.

Age-sex pyramids- a graphical representation of the distribution of the population by sex and age, which is used to characterize the sex and age composition of the population.

The age-sex composition of the population represents the ratio of age-sex groups - populations of people of the same age. This is the main element of the age structure of the population. Depending on the objectives of the study, one-year and enlarged age groups are distinguished: five- and ten-year-olds. However, larger age groups are also used to assess general structural shifts.

Age-sex pyramids are diagrams in which the number of people of each age (or their proportion in the population) is depicted as a horizontal bar of a certain scale. The bars are located one above the other in order of increasing age values, on the left side of the diagram - for men, on the right - for women. Age-sex pyramids are usually built according to one-year or five-year age groups, and sometimes even ten-year groups. However, age and sex pyramids built according to large age groups do not reveal the detailed features of the age and sex composition of the population.

The composition of the age-sex structure of the population is primarily the result of the evolution of population reproduction. The type of population reproduction, formed by the processes of fertility and mortality in the present and past periods, determines the ratio of the population of different age groups.

Age structures

The Swedish statistician and demographer A.-G. Sundberg proposed to distinguish three types of age structures of the population: progressive, stationary and regressive.

• progressive type characterized by a high proportion of children and a low proportion of the older generation in the entire population. Its formation is based on an extended type of reproduction. The age pyramid has the shape of a triangle, the base of which depends on the birth rate.
• At stationary type, which is based on a simple type of reproduction, the age pyramid is bell-shaped with an almost balanced proportion of children and senile age groups.
• The narrowed type of reproduction leads to the formation regressive type, whose age pyramid has the shape of an urn. It is characterized by a relatively high proportion of elderly and old people and a low proportion of children.

The formation of the age structure of the population is greatly influenced by wars, as a result of which, firstly, there is a decrease in the population of military age, and secondly, a sharp decline in the birth rate. At the regional and sometimes national level, large changes in the age structure can occur as a result of migration, usually increasing the number of men of working age. As a result of these causes, the edges of the age pyramid become uneven, reflecting historical changes in the nature of population growth and decline. Such violations leave traces in the age structure of the population for a long time.

The analysis of the age-gender pyramid makes it possible to characterize not only the demographic history of the state, but also to predict the demographic situation in the future.

Types of age-sex pyramids

Growing age-sex pyramid

• High birth rate

• Most of the young
• Low proportion of elderly
• Short lifespan
• Young
• Population growth
• Given the age structure of large developing countries

Age-sex pyramid is reduced

• Low birth rate
• Low percentage of young
• A large proportion of adults and the elderly
• High life expectancy
• Population aging
• The population remained stable or declined
• Taking into account the age structure, the most developed countries

Age-sex pyramid rejuvenating

• typical of developed countries that experience higher birth rates as a result of

Pivot graphs, charts, tables are indispensable accompanying statistics. One of them is the age-sex pyramid, which provides a rich field for analysis. We will devote this article to her, along the way analyzing the composition of the population of Russia using this diagram.

About the age-sex pyramid

A sex and age pyramid is a graph that distributes the entire population by sex and age. It represents, respectively, the opposition of two groups of people of the same age - men and women. The schedule can be compiled by years of life and by more enlarged categories - five years and decades. Its appearance completely depends on the goals of the component - to present a gender and age analysis of a small period of time or the scale of a century, centuries.

The standard form of the sex and age pyramid is as follows:

• Each highlighted age is a horizontal bar in the chart. Shows the number or proportion of the total population of people of a given age.
• The youngest groups are at the bottom of the pyramid, the oldest - at the top.
• On the left side of the diagram - the number or proportion of men of a particular age, on the right side - women.

What is the first thing the gender and age chart says? About the evolution of population reproduction in a particular period, about its type, which is determined by the birth and death rates in different periods of analysis, and, in addition, determines the total number of men and women of a particular age.

Types of sex and age pyramids

1. Progressive. It is characterized by a high proportion of the young population against the background of the elderly. This effect is achieved due to the extended type of reproduction. The gender and age pyramid for this type will look like a triangle. The wider its base, the higher the birth rate.
2. Stationary. A simple type of reproduction is observed. At the same time, the diagram resembles a bell in its shape - the number of young and elderly population is approximately equal.
3. Regressive. In this case, narrowed reproduction is on the face. The diagram follows the shape of the urn - a small number of children and young people, but a high percentage of adult citizens.

If you compare the sex and age pyramids with the vital graph, you can notice the following:

• Wars, leading to a decline in the young population and a decrease in the birth rate, have a great influence on the structure of the diagram.
• The migration of the population is also reflected on the edges of the pyramid - the proportion of adult males of working age is increasing.

World age and sex composition of the population

If we consider the sex and age pyramids of all world states, then the latter can be conditionally divided into the following categories:

• The number of women and men is relatively equal in Latin America and Africa.
• The female population prevails over the male - this phenomenon is typical for half of the countries of the globe, especially in Europe. The reason for this was the echoes of the world wars - until now, the harmonious ratio of men and women cannot be restored.
• The male population prevails over the female - typical for Asian countries, mainly for China and India.

Russian gender and age structure

The sex and age pyramid of the population of Russia, compiled according to the results of the general population in 2002 and according to statistical data, demonstrates the following:

• A general analysis shows a visible gender imbalance of the population: up to 29 years of age, the number of males predominates, 30-44 years old - the number of men and women is approximately the same, and after 44 years the number of women increases to 3 times exceed the number of men at around 70 years old.
• We can say that the population of the country is steadily aging. This is not due to an increase in the proportion of older people, but because of low birth rates.
• In 2016, the proportion of children under 15 was 17%, and the proportion of older people over 65 was 20% of the total population. This state of affairs can lead to a sharp reduction in the income of citizens (one dependent person per one able-bodied citizen). Only an increase in the birth rate can save the state of affairs.

Age and sex pyramid of Russia in 2017

Let's present the data for 2017 in the form of a table.

The gender and age pyramid is important for analysis not only for statisticians and demographers, but also for any person who is not indifferent to the social situation in his country and around the world. The chart allows you to analyze the past and present, as well as make some predictions about the future.

AGE PYRAMID (pyramid of ages, age-sex pyramid), a graphic representation of the distribution of people by age and gender. It is a two-sided directional chart in which the number of people of each age and sex, or their proportion in the population, is depicted as a horizontal bar of the same scale. The bars are arranged one above the other in order of increasing age values, usually from 0 to 100 years, on the left - for men, on the right - for women. Since, due to mortality, the number of people in older ages is usually smaller than in younger ones, the image for the full set of ages is in the form of a pyramid.

The age pyramid is usually built according to population censuses or surveys for one or five-year age groups so that the area of ​​the steps of the pyramid corresponds to the number of people of a given age and sex or (in comparison) their share in the total population. The length of the step in this case corresponds to the density of a given age group, that is, the number of people per unit of age. If the initial data on the age structure are presented in unequal age intervals, then for larger groups, the length of the steps of the age pyramid is determined by dividing the number of people in the group by the length of the interval, expressed in age units adopted for the entire age pyramid. If the older age group unites people, for example, 70 years and older, then it is considered that this interval extends up to 100 years, that is, it is equal to 30 years, but for every 5 years it does not depict the average density (as 1/6 of the sum of the numbers of people 70 years and older), and gradually decreasing to zero by the age of 100 years.

The age pyramid is useful in analyzing both the history of the population of a country and its regions, and in assessing their future demographic development. It was not for nothing that it was called the "chronicle of the natural movement of the population." In the age structure, one can trace changes in the levels of fertility and mortality in the past, which is well illustrated by the uneven edges of the pyramid (figure). On the pyramid for 2005, traces of a decrease in the number of births and an increase in the number of infant deaths are clearly visible during the 1st World War and the Civil War, during the famine of 1932-33, a sharp decrease in the number of births during the Great Patriotic War and the "echo" of this reduction after about 20 years. The effects of the second "echo" of the war were exacerbated by a sharp decline in the birth rate in the 1990s. The scale of military losses of men is well, although incompletely, illustrated by the "predominance of women" at the age of 63-95 years. Other factors are also involved in the formation of these irregularities, although they are not always easy to distinguish. The appearance of the age pyramid of individual regions can, for example, be influenced by population migration. The narrowing of the lower part of the age pyramid indicates a very likely decline in the birth rate in the future.